US-China Travel Trends: The Fall and Rise of International Tourism
US-China Reputation Tarnished - Tourism Sector Struggles - Deteriorating Relations Between U.S. and China Result in Damaged Reputations and Struggling Tourism Sectors
Not everything that glitters is gold, but it sure does make for a great read!
In today's globe-trotting world, recent crises have left a lasting impact – with China feeling the brunt more than the USA. Major German airports such as Frankfurt and Munich have reported a surge in passengers on US routes after President Donald Trump took office, while traffic to China has dwindled. In fact, the United States has surpassed China in global visitor numbers since 2019.
Trump's Second Term: A Perfect Storm for Tourism Plunges
Munich Airport registered almost 1.2 million passengers on US-bound flights between January and May, an increase of around 37,000 over the previous year. Frankfurt saw an uptick of 7,600 passengers to 944,300 in the first four months (without May). Although these numbers don't indicate a significant Trump effect, they don't paint the full picture, as they don't specify whether the flights were mostly US or European citizens, nor do they account for both departing and arriving passengers.
Experts concur that Trump's second term could be detrimental to US tourism: The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) and consulting firm Oxford Economics anticipate revenue losses of over $12 billion this year due to fewer foreign travelers, as per their estimates. Der Spiegel, a German news magazine, dedicated its latest cover story to the travel crisis provoked by Trump.
China's Travel Woes: Pandemic and War's Dark Dance
Passenger numbers on flights to and from Munich and Frankfurt have seen a drop this year: by 1,300 to nearly 203,000 in Munich during the first five months, and by 27,000 to 180,300 in Frankfurt during the first four months, compared to the previous year. Long-term comparisons between 2019 and 2024 paint a similar picture: Decreasing passenger numbers to and from China, with more flights to the USA.
Now, what's causing this downturn? "China's accessibility has drastically changed," says Dennis Utzerath, a tourism expert at the international consulting firm BCG in Cologne. The pandemic has resulted in significantly reduced flight offerings, and since the 2022 Ukraine war, European airlines have had to navigate expensive detours around Russian airspace, whereas Chinese airlines do not. "This makes it challenging for European airlines to compete with Chinese airlines," explains Utzerath. Several European airlines, including Lufthansa and British Airways, have halted flights to China.
Surprising Sparks of China Tourism
"The reduced passenger numbers from Germany to China do not reflect the actual demand for China tourism," says Holger Baldus, security manager at the Munich-based tour operator Studiosus. The low passenger numbers can be attributed to route adjustments made by European carriers to China. In fact, there's a surprising recovery in China tourism from Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, constrained only by the scarcity of available seats.
TUI, the largest German tour operator, also reports an increase in interest in China – albeit from a low base, according to a company spokesperson.
China's Losing Luster? A Long-term Affair
Since before the pandemic, China's image in the Western world has been tarnished. Issues like state surveillance, harsh COVID-19 lockdowns, environmental pollution, and war threats against Taiwan have dented its reputation.
Utzerath, a business consultant, echoes this thought: "Reputation matters in the case of China. Bad press always leaves an indelible mark. It's not that a country is 'down', but rather that the flow of positive experiences, travel tales, and impressions shrivels up." This change in perception shifts interest. "I wouldn't attach excessive drama to it, but it shows how volatile the tourism industry is. The industry thrives on headlines and prevailing images in the public eye."
While the US may not have had as many incentives to travel, it hasn't had as many deterrents either. "It's not like there are many reasons discouraging folks who didn't travel there last year from visiting now," says Utzerath. The dollar exchange rate is currently favorable for Europeans.
Beijing: charm school for tourists
Unlike the US government, Beijing is eager to attract more visitors. The Chinese government has simplified its visa policy, eliminating the need for visas for business or tourism travel by Germans (and many other Europeans) and offering stays of up to 30 days. There's also been progress in easing access to China's digital payment system, with translated apps and acceptance of foreign credit cards. In the first quarter of this year, authorities reported approximately 17.4 million foreign entries, a 33% increase compared to last year.
Peking has high hopes for tourism as a means to boost the domestic economy. Officials aim to stimulate demand and consumer sentiment – hurt by the economic downturn – through promotions of domestic tourism. Innovative initiatives like specialized train trips for seniors with on-board medical care and assistance have been launched to encourage spending by the elderly population.
[1] World Tourism Organization[2] CNN[3] Forbes[4] CNBC
[...]
In essence, the decline in international tourism to China can be attributed to a mix of prolonged stringent pandemic restrictions, limited visa-free access, economic challenges, shifting travel preferences, and geopolitical concerns. Meanwhile, the USA's comparatively swifter recovery can be traced back to earlier reopening, broader traveler access, stronger economic conditions, and less restrictive COVID-19 protocols.
This complex situation underscores the influence of distinct pandemic responses and economic environments on global tourism recovery patterns.
- The employment policy within the travel industry could be significantly impacted by the current political climate, as the World Travel & Tourism Council and consulting firm Oxford Economics predict revenue losses of over $12 billion this year due to fewer foreign travelers.
- Lifestyles of travelers may show a shift towards destinations based on their perception of a country's policy towards war-and-conflicts and general-news, as the reputation of China has been tarnished due to issues like state surveillance, harsh COVID-19 lockdowns, environmental pollution, and war threats against Taiwan.
- Community policy changes, such as the simplification of visa requirements, could potentially boost employment opportunities in the travel and tourism sector, as seen in China's initiative to attract more visitors by offering stays of up to 30 days for Germans (and many other Europeans) and easing access to their digital payment system.
